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Cpm Pert And S Curve Training Module2D

Module 3: PERT Probabilistic Analysis - Cpm Pert Scurve Training Module03 Contingency Decision

Understand how to incorporate time uncertainty into project schedules using three-point estimating, variance, and probability analysis to support risk-informed management decisions in irrigation projects.

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Contingency Decision Planner

Set your required confidence level to determine the schedule contingency needed to commit to a target date.

(Baseline Te=40T_e = 40, σp=2\sigma_p = 2)

Required Target Date

Required Z-Score
Z = 1.04
Calculated Contingency
Contingency=Z×σp=1.04×2.0=2.1 days\text{Contingency} = Z \times \sigma_p = 1.04 \times 2.0 = 2.1 \text{ days}
Committed Target Date (TdT_d)
Td=Te+Contingency=40.0+2.1=42.1 daysT_d = T_e + \text{Contingency} = 40.0 + 2.1 = 42.1 \text{ days}

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